Wednesday, January 19, 2005

Keeping It Real Politik: 2008 Magical Presidential Futures Market I

They come from the right:

One early version of the 2008 Republican roster includes Sens. Bill Frist of Tennessee, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, John McCain of Arizona and George Allen of Virginia. The list also could include Gov. Bill Owens of Colorado and Gov. George Pataki of New York. Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani also has hinted at his presidential ambitions.

And the left:

Even if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York decides to run, there is no consensus whether she would win the nomination. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who lost to Bush, is building an organization if he runs again and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who was Kerry's running mate, is remaining active in politics.

Well, maybe not so much, but it makes for some fun hot-stove talk as the 2004 inauguration kicks off and as those ’08 Iowa caucuses are but a mere 36 months away or so (but who’s counting?).

There are even more names to play about with, now that it’s going to be, as the Beastie Boys sample, “that kind of party”: Mitch McConnell, Dennis Hastert, Newt Gingrich, Howard Dean, Mark Warner, John Kerrey, Barack Obama and about 50 others hoping that they can wheel and deal themselves into the pole position over the next two years.

In the near-term, the race for the next Democratic Chairman could ease one prominent name (Dean’s) off the future’s market. Howard Dean is continuing to pick up support for this influential position though, importantly, a victory would likely prevent his running for the presidency in 2008. No wonder then that John Kerry is at this very moment trying to make nice-nice with his former rival.

Dumpster Bust Magical Presidential Futures Market: January 2005 Edition

Let’s have some fun now and look at some early odds. As always, this is meant to open up some discussion and feedback, so feel free to fire away.

Presidential Horserace
Top Five Republicans – % Shot at Nomination – 2008 Prediction

John McCain (33%)
Will be very hard to defeat

Rudolph Giuliani (25%)
Strong rival to McCain early, fades early

Mitch McConnell (25%)
Bush’s chosen heir; hangs in late as GOP Southern, base fave vs. McCain

George Pataki (5%)
Early media scrutiny never generates buzz

Bill Owens (3%)
Bid doesn’t really go anywhere

Top Five Democrats – % Shot at Nomination – 2008 Prediction

John Kerry (30%)
A real wild-card at this point

John Edwards (25%)
He needs to find a new role and soon

Hillary Rodham Clinton (20%)
Lots of upside, lots of downside (like her husband)

Mark Warner (12%)
Fresh-faced Southern Gov. is a Dem remedy for ills

Barack Obama (7%)
Freshman Senator has the potential to be a Major Player… in 2012


spiderleaf said...

I'm surprised you didn't include Jeb, Eric.

I would think he's primed and the Bushies would love to continue the dynasty...

McCain would be tough to beat... unless you had Karl Rove on your team...


Eric Berlin said...

Hey welcome aboard Spiderleaf...

There's a few reasons I didn't include Jeb. First, he's announced that he won't seek the nomination in '08, which is quite a bit stronger than the usual "I agreed to serve out my term and that's what I plan to do for the people of..." stuff.

Second, Republican insiders generally concede that Bush the III would not play very well with the public, especially coming off eight years of George W.

That being said, how's a nice 20 of 28 year block of history with a Bush as President. Add in Bush I as VP and you have the makings of a creepy bedtime story...

Eric Berlin said...

You're very right about one thing: the Karl Rove sweepstakes are going to be fierce.

I believe he's said that he's going to downgrade his role after this administration ends, but look for Rove to be passed on down to the Bush-anointed successor. It could well be McCain, though I highly doubt it. McConnell is my guess or someone like him.

Someone with the blind loyalty / little imagination / ideologue factor.

Condi Rice in '08?

Could be a player in the Magical Presidential Futures Market II.

Stay tuned...