One early version of the 2008 Republican roster includes Sens. Bill Frist of Tennessee, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, John McCain of Arizona and George Allen of Virginia. The list also could include Gov. Bill Owens of Colorado and Gov. George Pataki of New York. Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani also has hinted at his presidential ambitions.
And the left:
Even if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York decides to run, there is no consensus whether she would win the nomination. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who lost to Bush, is building an organization if he runs again and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who was Kerry's running mate, is remaining active in politics.
Well, maybe not so much, but it makes for some fun hot-stove talk as the 2004 inauguration kicks off and as those ’08 Iowa caucuses are but a mere 36 months away or so (but who’s counting?).
There are even more names to play about with, now that it’s going to be, as the Beastie Boys sample, “that kind of party”: Mitch McConnell, Dennis Hastert, Newt Gingrich, Howard Dean, Mark Warner, John Kerrey, Barack Obama and about 50 others hoping that they can wheel and deal themselves into the pole position over the next two years.
In the near-term, the race for the next Democratic Chairman could ease one prominent name (Dean’s) off the future’s market. Howard Dean is continuing to pick up support for this influential position though, importantly, a victory would likely prevent his running for the presidency in 2008. No wonder then that John Kerry is at this very moment trying to make nice-nice with his former rival.
Dumpster Bust Magical Presidential Futures Market: January 2005 Edition
Let’s have some fun now and look at some early odds. As always, this is meant to open up some discussion and feedback, so feel free to fire away.
Top Five Republicans – % Shot at Nomination – 2008 Prediction
John McCain (33%)
Will be very hard to defeat
Rudolph Giuliani (25%)
Strong rival to McCain early, fades early
Mitch McConnell (25%)
Bush’s chosen heir; hangs in late as GOP Southern, base fave vs. McCain
George Pataki (5%)
Early media scrutiny never generates buzz
Bill Owens (3%)
Bid doesn’t really go anywhere
Top Five Democrats – % Shot at Nomination – 2008 Prediction
John Kerry (30%)
A real wild-card at this point
John Edwards (25%)
He needs to find a new role and soon
Hillary Rodham Clinton (20%)
Lots of upside, lots of downside (like her husband)
Mark Warner (12%)
Fresh-faced Southern Gov. is a Dem remedy for ills
Barack Obama (7%)
Freshman Senator has the potential to be a Major Player… in 2012