Keeping It Real Politik: Long-term Trends, Long-term Hope for Dems?

Howard Dean, the new Democratic National Chairman, inspires grassroots support and brings new people into the democratic process. He has been innovative in the use of technology, raising money, and political organization -- all vital parts of the DNC position. Further, he was a successful Chairman of the Democratic Governors Association when he was the Gov of Vermont.

I think Howard Dean will do a great job as DNC. But the overall situation points out that the Dems really can't do much worse than they have over the last six years (dating to the '98 midterm elections) and trends show they're likely to make gains in the future.

The not-so-secret secret is that the Democrats are about as down right now as it is possible for them to be. They've already been nearly knocked out of the South (outside of highly urban areas) and redistricting in places like Texas have now taken all the toll intended.

Now the good news: immigration patterns, demographics, and population growth foretell Democratic success in the future, not failure.

In presidential politics, the GOP may hold a nearly unbreakable base in the Mountain West and South at the moment, but the Dems have a solidifying blue hold on the Northeast, West coast, and important states like Illinois and Michigan. Not so long ago, California and Illinois were considered battleground states, but no longer.

Add to that recent Democratic victories in bright red states such as Kansas, Montana, and the not as red Arizona, and the long-term outlook becomes very interesting. In fact, it's quite possible that the Southwest could become a major battleground in '08 and beyond. The Midwest has kind of settled into Michigan/Illinois for Dems, Ohio/Indiana for the GOP, with Wisconsin and perhaps even Minnesota as the remaining battlegrounds there.

A tiny shift in voting in the Southwest -- say, if Arizona and Nevada shift firmly blue, let's say -- the entire national picture is altered dramatically.